True Odds: A Prediction Markets Podcast

Casey’s Pizza, WBC Futures, Bears Trade Hopes & GTA 6 Price Market

Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets.
We open with a quick recap: NVIDIA beat (and basically “saved the market”), CrowdStrike beat after peers signaled strength, and Mikey celebrates a win on Traitors USA — plus Joey officially got hooked.
Then we check in on Bitcoin after John Morgan’s call: it didn’t tag 60K, bounced hard, and is now ripping higher — with 80K looking closer than a retest of the low 60s.
This week’s main earnings watch is a sneaky one: Casey’s General Stores (CASY) — the Midwest convenience store legend and fifth-largest pizza retailer in the U.S. Joey highlights a perfect recent track record of earnings beats, while Mikey confirms the real alpha: Casey’s breakfast pizza.
Sports are back: the World Baseball Classic is underway. Mikey doubles down on Dominican Republic to win Pool D, Joey rides Japan to win Pool C, and we both agree the USA should handle Pool B unless something goes sideways.
Then we hit NFL transaction chaos: Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? The Bears odds jumped from 23% to 48% in a day, and Mikey is fully manifesting an elite pass rusher in Chicago — especially after surprise news that center Drew Dalman retired at 27, opening more cap questions.
We wrap with the random market of the week: Will GTA 6 cost over $100? We debate “standard edition” vs bundles, why $100 would be wild, and then Joey casually nails a GTA: Vice City release date question like it’s nothing.
Drop a comment:Who are you taking in the WBC?Is Maxx Crosby actually headed to Chicago?And what’s your GTA 6 price prediction?
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
Chapters
0:00 - Welcome + recap setup0:20 - Earnings recap: NVDA beat, market reaction0:45 - CrowdStrike beat + thesis confirmed1:10 - Traitors USA finale: Rob wins + Joey gets hooked2:50 - Bitcoin 60K vs 80K recap + John Morgan nailed it4:05 - Earnings of the week: Casey’s (CASY) preview4:40 - Casey’s pizza angle + 10/10 earnings beats5:20 - Mikey’s Casey’s breakfast pizza endorsement6:55 - World Baseball Classic underway: DR vs Japan positions7:30 - DR to win Pool D: lineup looks stacked8:45 - Japan to win Pool C + USA Pool B flag planting10:40 - Maxx Crosby 2026 market: Bears jump 23% to 48%12:00 - Drew Dalman retires at 27 + cap space theory13:55 - Detroit trades David Montgomery: “Sonic & Knuckles” broken up16:15 - Random market: Will GTA 6 cost over $100?17:25 - Standard edition rule + why “no shot”20:05 - Vice City release date trivia + Joey nails it21:20 - Outro + comment/market suggestions

SaaSpocalypse Explained + CrowdStrike Earnings + Stripe Buying PayPal?

Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets — Episode 12, “The Dirty Dozen.”
We start by recapping last week’s State of the Union timing market… and wow: it ran a record 1 hour 48 minutes. We were on the over, but still didn’t land the perfect range — close, but no cigar.
Then we hit earnings and market vibes: Walmart beat, NVIDIA is the main event (conference call and forward guidance matters most), and Mikey’s Discord IPO call got spicy fast — but Joey drops a key rules lesson: IPO plans can get delayed, so if you’ve already doubled, take the cash and move on.
Next up: Joey’s big earnings look-ahead is CrowdStrike, plus a full breakdown of the SaaSpocalypse — AI agents, “build-a-knockoff” software fears, and how market stupidity can go further than you think. We also dig into a new market: Will Stripe acquire PayPal in 2026? and why buying the whole company might not make sense… but buying parts might.
Sports are back too: we lock in World Baseball Classic futures (Dominican Republic vs Japan) and talk trading strategy if they reach the later rounds. Then we jump to a “trap opportunity” market: Who goes #1 in the 2026 NBA Draft? and why we like buying NO on Darren Peterson.
We wrap with listener theory: Bitcoin $60K or $80K first? with a John Morgan quote, and finish with our random markets: Traitors US finale bet and a fun one — Apple’s March 4 NYC event and “what will they say” markets like M5, Apple Intelligence, Siri, and iPad.
Comment your favorite market from this episode — and what you’re trading next.
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

LeBron Retiring Before Next Season? + The Highest Grossing Movie of 2026 Market

Episode 11 of True Odds starts with a sports reality check: the NBA All-Star “World” pick got torched (thanks to limited minutes from Jokic and Luka), and Mikey Markets + Joey Rockets are officially dialing down NBA and Olympics takes for a bit.
The good news? Earnings bailed us out — AppLovin and Palo Alto both beat. Then the guys preview the next wave: Walmart (a “can’t miss” setup with tech-like valuation), Lowe’s (with Home Depot as the key read-through), and Nvidia (the market’s darling that “has to beat”).
On the culture side: Will LeBron retire before next season? Then a contrarian movie market: Super Mario Brothers Galaxy vs Spider-Man for highest grossing film of 2026. The episode turns serious with MLB labor talk: Will MLB have a new CBA by Dec 1, 2026? (plus deferred money, minimum payrolls, and lockout fears). Finally, the random market of the week: How long will Trump’s State of the Union be?
#trueodds 
Chapters00:00 — Episode 11 intro + sports “bloodbath” PSA00:51 — NBA All-Star recap: why the World pick failed03:08 — Earnings winners: AppLovin + Palo Alto beat03:53 — Walmart earnings preview: “can’t afford to miss”06:13 — Lowe’s preview: Home Depot as the read-through08:19 — Nvidia preview: the market’s “must beat” report10:59 — LeBron retirement market: will he retire before next season?13:25 — Trading angle: can you scalp the LeBron market?16:01 — Last Dance + Jordan talk17:08 — Highest grossing movie of 2026: Super Mario Galaxy case20:46 — Toy Story 5: toys vs iPad debate24:00 — MLB CBA market: lockout fears + Tony Clark resignation26:05 — Fix ideas: deferred money caps + minimum payroll32:21 — Trading the CBA market as volatility rises35:47 — Savannah Bananas: who benefits if MLB locks out?37:24 — Random market: State of the Union length (timed prop)40:22 — Wrap: what’s next + calls to comment/subscribe
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Super Bowl Winners Recap + What’s Next: NBA All-Star, Olympics, WBC + Earnings

Football season is officially over… and True Odds is taking a victory lap.
Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets recap an insanely profitable Super Bowl weekend: Seattle + under, Kenneth Walker MVP, AJ Barner TD (plus the legendary Vegas pool promise that actually got paid out). Then they pivot to earnings results (Google/Reddit hit, Uber/Amazon missed), break down why AppLovin is a community darling heading into earnings, and set up Palo Alto Networks as the next cybersecurity “earnings beat machine.”
On the sports side, they dive into the new NBA All-Star USA vs World format — and explain why the World roster is absurd. Then it’s Olympics quick-hitters (Eileen Gu and Chloe Kim), a contrarian World Baseball Classic angle on the Dominican Republic at a longshot price, and a fun “random market of the week” debate: Will there be a half-court shot in the All-Star game?
Drop a comment with your favorite market to track next.
Chapters
00:00 — Intro: football season over, Super Bowl winners recap01:16 — Super Bowl weekend vibes + Mikey’s Vegas experience02:11 — The full Super Bowl card: Seattle, under, Walker MVP, Barner first TD, novelty props03:38 — Joey’s proudest win: Kenneth Walker MVP breakdown04:22 — Walker legacy + why the kicker MVP sweat got real05:27 — Seattle defense takeaway: Pats were doomed06:12 — Earnings recap: Google/Reddit beat, Uber/Amazon miss07:16 — Prediction markets lesson: research helps, but surprises happen08:59 — AppLovin deep dive: what it is + what Stocktwits community expects10:55 — Why AppLovin is a “darling” (and why shorts keep coming for it)12:04 — Next setup: Palo Alto Networks earnings (cybersecurity tailwinds)14:35 — Pivot to sports markets: NBA All-Star weekend (USA vs World format)16:22 — World roster reaction: Giannis, Luka, Jokic, Wemby17:51 — Do we even need All-Star games anymore?19:04 — The pick: World team value vs USA pricing21:12 — Timing note: low volume markets can move fast22:27 — Olympics check-in: what they’re watching23:30 — Eileen Gu bounce-back case (halfpipe)25:18 — Joey’s Olympics play: Chloe Kim halfpipe26:12 — Chloe Kim and Myles Garrett power couple moment27:30 — WBC contrarian: Dominican Republic at 15 cents (stacked lineup)28:27 — Joey’s concern: DR pitching vs USA staff edge30:55 — Listener theory: biggest IPO of 2026 (SpaceX vs OpenAI)32:57 — Random market: half-court shot in NBA All-Star game34:12 — Rule nuance: both feet must be behind half-court line35:35 — Wrap: what’s next (guests, baseball, college hoops)36:21 — Parting shots: building the wedding fund, more winners ahead

Super Bowl LX Picks + Best Props (Seahawks vs Patriots) ft. Ethan Weiss | True Odds Ep. 9

It’s Super Bowl week on True Odds — Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets are joined by Ethan Weiss for a full Super Bowl LX preview: Seahawks vs Patriots.
We start by recapping last week’s results (most of the earnings card hit, with one big surprise), then revisit the Elon trillionaire market that jumped hard on fresh SpaceX/Tesla/XAI news. After that, we hit this week’s case files (Uber, Google, Amazon, Reddit), and then it’s all Super Bowl: keys to the game, early leans (Seahawks + under), touchdown scorers, MVP value plays, and some of the funniest novelty props you’ll see anywhere — including broadcast words and which companies will run Super Bowl ads.
Finally, we close with the ultimate degenerate classic: coin toss props (heads/tails + coin toss winner vs game winner).
Drop a comment with your favorite prop and your Super Bowl pick.
Chapters
00:00 — Super Bowl week + no-football week recap01:30 — Last week’s earnings recap (beats + the Tesla surprise)02:50 — Grammys recap + prediction markets moving first05:07 — Elon trillionaire market jumps (why it moved)08:09 — Case Files: Uber10:03 — Case Files: Google11:21 — Case Files: Amazon12:48 — Case Files: Reddit (and why it moved)15:33 — Super Bowl LX preview begins + guest Ethan Weiss joins17:19 — Keys to the game (Seahawks defense, red zone, run game)22:36 — Over/Under leans (why we’re leaning under)26:02 — Who wins Super Bowl LX?32:16 — Touchdown scorers (Walker / Hunter Henry / A.J. Barner longshot)36:47 — Super Bowl MVP value (Walker vs JSN)42:09 — Will it be the most watched Super Bowl ever?45:55 — Broadcast words prop market (touchback / “Now here’s a guy” / concussion)49:03 — Which companies will run ads? (Anthropic / Robinhood / Apple)55:26 — What the Poly: coin toss props (heads/tails + coin toss winner vs game winner)58:10 — Wrap-up + comment callout

Tesla Earnings Don’t Matter… But the Beat Market Does (Rapid-Fire Earnings Card)

Welcome back to True Odds with Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets. We’re coming off another strong run (not a perfect week, but still winners), and we’re officially down to the last game of the season: Super Bowl LX — Seahawks vs Patriots.
We recap what hit and what didn’t (including the Capital One + McCormick earnings misses), then circle back to the wildest storyline we’ve covered so far: silver. The market was 57% to close above $85… and silver is still north of $100. Jonathan Morgan was early, loud, and right.
Then we flip into a rapid-fire earnings segment with a loaded week: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, Palantir, and AMD—and we make a key point that keeps coming up in the comments: in prediction markets, the stock being up or down isn’t the bet. The bet is simply: beat or miss.
We close with early Super Bowl thoughts (lean Seahawks + lean under), a big-picture market cap debate (Google vs Nvidia by end of 2026), and a spicy one: Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027? The SpaceX IPO math is doing some heavy lifting here.
Drop a like, drop a comment, and tell us what earnings bets you’re watching.
Chapters
00:00 — Intro + winners soapbox01:26 — Super Bowl matchup lock (Seahawks vs Patriots)01:46 — Earnings misses: Capital One + McCormick (what went wrong)03:19 — Silver recap: from 57% over $85 to north of $10005:40 — Next week: full Super Bowl breakdown + props (tease)06:38 — Grammys + Bad Bunny halftime props (what’s resolving soon)07:19 — Rapid-fire earnings setup (Mag7 week)07:45 — Microsoft: beat or miss?10:13 — Meta: beat or miss?12:29 — Tesla: beat or miss (and why earnings “don’t matter” to the stock)15:43 — Apple: beat or miss?17:51 — Palantir: beat or miss?20:12 — AMD: beat or miss?22:19 — Early Super Bowl LX thoughts + lean under29:01 — Market cap debate: Google vs Nvidia by end of 202637:13 — Will Elon be a trillionaire before 2027? (SpaceX IPO math)41:41 — Wrap-up + episode count momentum

True Odds Goes 4-1 Again: Bills Controversy, Championship Picks, and Super Bowl Props

Welcome back to True Odds — Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets are here with the 01/20/26 episode, and the heater continues: we didn’t go 5-0… we “only” went 4-1 (and technically 5-1 if you count how we both cashed Bears/Rams with the spread).
We recap the slate, including the Bills/Broncos controversy, the brutal Bo Nix injury, the Seahawks rolling again, and the Patriots exposing Houston’s very real C.J. Stroud problem. Then we hit this week’s earnings case files (Capital One + McCormick), lock in our AFC/NFC Championship picks, and pivot into the fun stuff: Super Bowl halftime song markets (Bad Bunny) and a Grammys Best New Artist “hammerlock” that Mikey is way too confident about.
Drop a like, drop a comment, and tell us what you’re playing.
Chapters00:00 — Intro + 4-1 recap01:09 — Bills/Broncos: controversy + Bo Nix injury03:09 — Bills fallout: emotions + McDermott fired03:59 — Seahawks smash the Niners (what it means)04:54 — Patriots beat Texans: “C.J. Stroud problem”06:20 — Bears heartbreak vs Rams (but bets cash)10:19 — Indiana completes 16-0 + Big Ten flex13:24 — Case Files begin: Capital One beats?15:34 — Joey’s Case File: McCormick beats?19:04 — Championship slate preview19:31 — Patriots vs Broncos pick (no Bo Nix)22:51 — Rams vs Seahawks pick + why Seattle advances25:10 — Super Bowl LX matchup market (Patriots vs Seahawks)26:14 — Super Bowl halftime songs: Bad Bunny “I Like It” angle30:38 — What the Poly: Grammys Best New Artist (Olivia Dean)34:08 — What’s next: Grammys/Oscars + earnings + March Madness tease36:47 — Wrap-up
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

We Went 5-0 Last Week… Can We Do It Again? (Divisional Round Picks + Netflix Earnings)

True Odds rolls into the week off a perfect 5-0 football card, with Mikey and Joey recapping last week’s winners and the chaos that followed — including Mikey’s Bears comeback live bet on Polymarket that turned $50 into $500 when Chicago was down big. Joey then runs “Case File” with his top earnings angle: Netflix to beat expectations next week, fueled by Christmas Day NFL viewership, heavy ad loads, and sticky content releases. The guys then set their Divisional Round card (aligned on Seahawks, Bills, and Patriots, split on Rams vs Bears), cap it with an Indiana lean in the CFP title game, and finish with a spicy “What the Poly” on silver—backed by bullish intel from Stocktwits’ Jonathan Morgan.

Playoff Football, Future Leader of Venezuela & GTA VI Markets Resurrect

Episode 5 of True Odds dives into the biggest betting and prediction-market stories as January 2026 heats up. Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets break down NFL playoff matchups, College Football Playoff semifinal picks, and key contrarian opportunities on Polymarket — including the evolving situation in Venezuela, major IPO bets like SpaceX and Discord, and long-shot geopolitical outcomes. The episode also features a special guest appearance from Ethan Weiss, who joins the show to analyze Wild Card weekend, CFP chaos, and where value may still exist as football enters its most important stretch. The crew wraps things up with a wild “What the Poly” segment centered around Grand Theft Auto 6 and one of the strangest markets on the board.

Week 18 Chaos, CFP Futures & Swift/Kelce Wedding Markets

True Odds is back after the holidays. Mikey Markets and Joey Rockets recap NFL Christmas results, Jokic’s historic Christmas game, and a 2-for-3 NFL slate, then break down the best Week 18 matchups: Ravens vs Steelers, Seahawks vs 49ers (No. 1 seed), and Panthers vs Bucs. Plus CFP picks (Oregon vs Texas Tech, Georgia vs Ole Miss), Coach of the Year value (Vrabel vs Shanahan), and the Polymarket prop of the week: will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get married by June 30, 2026?